January 2026: The numbers
Another month, another public report. No cherry-picking, no excuses — here’s everything.
| Metric | January 2026 | All-time |
|---|---|---|
| Total signals | 187 | 1,847 |
| Wins | 134 | 1,317 |
| Losses | 53 | 530 |
| Hit rate | 71.8% | 71.3% |
| ROI (flat stakes) | +24.1% | +21.4% |
| Average odds | 1.76 | 1.74 |
| Average EV | +9.2% | +6.8% |
| Longest win streak | 11 | 23 |
What went right
Premier League dominance
The English Premier League was our strongest performer in January, with a 78.4% hit rate across 37 signals. The busy holiday and winter schedule created ideal conditions — tired squads, high-scoring games, and slow defensive lines.
Key matchweeks 20-23 were particularly strong, with multiple high-EV opportunities per day.
Champions League knockouts
The Champions League knockout build-up (final matchday 7-8 of the league phase) delivered exceptional value. Teams needing results produced open, attacking football — precisely the conditions our model thrives in.
Algorithm v3.2 improvements
We shipped a model update in late December that improved our detection of “momentum collapse” patterns — situations where a team conceding early is likely to concede again within 15 minutes. This contributed approximately 12 extra signals this month that we wouldn’t have caught previously.
What went wrong
Bundesliga cold streak
Our Bundesliga signals underperformed at 61.3% hit rate (19/31). Several 0-0 and 1-0 grinds in Bundesliga matchday 18-19 produced signals that didn’t convert. The expected EV was still positive, but variance wasn’t in our favor.
January 18: worst single day
6 signals, 2 wins. A tough Saturday where low-scoring matches dominated unexpectedly. It happens. Single-day results are noise — monthly and quarterly are signal.
League breakdown
| League | Signals | Wins | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 37 | 29 | 78.4% |
| La Liga | 28 | 21 | 75.0% |
| Champions League | 22 | 17 | 77.3% |
| Serie A | 31 | 22 | 71.0% |
| Ligue 1 | 25 | 17 | 68.0% |
| Bundesliga | 31 | 19 | 61.3% |
| Other | 13 | 9 | 69.2% |
Looking ahead: February
February has historically been our second-best month (after April). The knockout rounds of European competitions, combined with tight domestic title races, tend to produce high-scoring, high-pressure football.
We expect signal volume to increase slightly (200-220 estimated) as UCL/UEL knockout rounds begin.
Transparency is the product
We publish these reports because we believe transparency is the only trust mechanism that works. We have nothing to hide — and neither should any signal provider you work with.
If a service can’t show you month-by-month, league-by-league results, that tells you everything you need to know.