Most tipsters track the wrong thing
Win rate is the most popular metric in the tipster world. “I’m hitting 75% this month!” Great — but at what odds?
A tipster hitting 75% at average odds of 1.20 is losing money long term. A tipster hitting 55% at average odds of 2.10 is printing money.
The difference? Expected value.
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per bet if you placed it infinite times. The formula is simple:
$$EV = (Probability \times Odds) - 1$$
If the result is positive, the bet has +EV. If negative, -EV.
A real example
Our algorithm detects Arsenal vs Chelsea, minute 62, score 1-0. The market for Over 1.5 Goals is priced at odds 1.72.
Our model estimates the true probability of one more goal at 68%.
$$EV = (0.68 \times 1.72) - 1 = 0.1696 = +16.96%$$
That’s a bet where, on average, you’d make 17 cents for every dollar risked. That’s a strong signal.
Why most bets are -EV
Bookmakers are businesses. They build margin (vig/juice) into every line. On average, the odds they offer imply a probability of 105-110% across all outcomes — the extra 5-10% is their profit.
This means most bets you place are -EV by default. The bookmaker’s model is better than your gut feeling. Period.
To consistently find +EV, you need one of two things:
- A model that estimates probabilities more accurately than the bookmaker in specific situations
- Access to a signal that’s already done the work
We provide option 2.
EV in practice: our track record
Across 1,800+ signals, our average expected value is +6.8%. That means on average, each signal we send carries a 6.8% mathematical edge.
Some months it’s higher (January 2026: +9.2%). Some months lower (August 2025: +4.1%). But over time, the law of large numbers does exactly what it’s supposed to — positive EV converts to positive profit.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total signals | 1,847 |
| Average EV | +6.8% |
| Realized ROI | +21.4% |
| Hit rate | 71.3% |
| Average odds | 1.74 |
The ROI exceeds the average EV because of variance — we’ve been on the right side of it. Over longer time periods, realized ROI converges toward expected EV.
What this means for you
When you receive a signal from thetipster.xyz, every single one includes the expected value. You can see exactly why the algorithm flagged it.
- EV > +5%: Solid edge, standard signal
- EV > +10%: Strong edge, high-confidence signal
- EV > +15%: Exceptional edge, rare but powerful
You decide what threshold to publish. Some tipsters only forward signals above +8% EV. Others forward everything. Your channel, your rules.
Stop gambling. Start calculating.
The shift from “I like Arsenal today” to “this market is mispriced by 12%” is the difference between gambling and investing. Expected value is the bridge.
We built everything at thetipster.xyz around this single principle: only send signals with verified positive expected value. No hunches. No favorites. No “locks of the day.”
Just math.